Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2462 at 07:16 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 2462 DFW 07:16 → SAN 08:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest F9 1425 DFW 17:56 → SAN 19:01 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2462 American Flight history →	DFW 07:16	SAN 08:16	22%	4%	1.0%	78%
AA 2476 American Flight history →	DFW 09:05	SAN 10:05	27%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	DFW 11:06	SAN 12:03	29%	9%	0.9%	62%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	DFW 13:20	SAN 14:17	31%	10%	0.9%	48%
AA 2485 American Flight history →	DFW 14:42	SAN 15:39	34%	10%	0.9%	42%
AS 551 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 14:52	SAN 15:54	34%	9%	0.7%	58%
AA 2458 American Flight history →	DFW 16:53	SAN 17:54	35%	11%	1.2%	36%
AA 2568 American Flight history →	DFW 22:55	SAN 23:59	36%	9%	1.2%	56%
AA 1011 American Flight history →	DFW 21:34	SAN 22:37	37%	10%	1.3%	35%
AS 780 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 19:24	SAN 20:29	38%	9%	0.8%	48%
AA 1243 American Flight history →	DFW 19:02	SAN 20:03	39%	11%	1.2%	58%
AA 3195 American Flight history →	DFW 18:15	SAN 19:20	39%	10%	1.2%	40%
F9 1425 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:56	SAN 19:01	42%	14%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON