Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3778 at 10:40 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 3778 DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 1406 DFW 20:48 → SAT 22:00 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3778 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:40	SAT 11:52	12%	2%	0.8%	78%
AA 4084 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:01	SAT 13:11	14%	3%	0.8%	79%
OO 4967 SkyWest	DFW 14:36	SAT 16:00	15%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1836 American Flight history →	DFW 07:38	SAT 08:46	17%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 3781 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:26	SAT 18:36	18%	3%	0.8%	75%
AA 413 American Flight history →	DFW 09:00	SAT 10:08	21%	5%	0.7%	71%
AA 1539 American Flight history →	DFW 13:49	SAT 14:56	29%	9%	0.8%	54%
AA 2374 American Flight history →	DFW 16:37	SAT 17:49	30%	11%	0.8%	53%
AA 3097 American Flight history →	DFW 21:56	SAT 23:04	32%	9%	0.9%	51%
AA 1599 American Flight history →	DFW 22:50	SAT 23:58	33%	8%	0.8%	41%
AA 499 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	SAT 19:43	33%	11%	0.8%	61%
AA 546 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	SAT 21:03	33%	11%	0.8%	49%
AA 1406 American Flight history →	DFW 20:48	SAT 22:00	34%	10%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON