tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2510 at 10:30, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2510 American Flight history → DFW 10:30 SBA 11:47 19% 6% 0.8% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291 1h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 94% 86%
AmericanDetails → DFW 06:17 → PHX 06:50AA 1854 3h 14m Phoenix PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:40AA 4993 · flown by SkyWest 7h 23m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → DFW 08:45 → DEN 10:06UA 644 1h 20m Denver DEN 11:26 → SBA 13:02UA 671 6h 17m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → DFW 18:12 → SLC 20:00DL 2812 1h 05m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest 5h 53m 81% 75%
AmericanDetails → DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:08AA 2113 2h 54m Phoenix PHX 17:02 → SBA 18:33AA 2515 6h 53m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790 2h 40m San Francisco SFO 10:27 → SBA 11:50UA 1578 7h 50m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:37 → PHX 17:09AA 1155 3h 18m Phoenix PHX 20:27 → SBA 21:58AA 1731 7h 21m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → DFW 11:02 → SFO 12:51UA 1712 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → SBA 17:37UA 5862 · flown by SkyWest 8h 35m 98% 68%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON