Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3788 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 3788 DFW 07:25 → SDF 10:39 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2519 DFW 15:50 → SDF 18:58 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3788 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:25	SDF 10:39	8%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	SDF 12:48	9%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 4152 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:17	SDF 17:30	16%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 1796 American	DFW 12:06	SDF 15:13	29%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 1365 American Flight history →	DFW 20:36	SDF 23:46	36%	11%	0.8%	41%
AA 2519 American Flight history →	DFW 15:50	SDF 18:58	36%	11%	0.8%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON