Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 17 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 804 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 804 DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2003 DFW 20:13 → SEA 22:26 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 804 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:30	SEA 08:46	9%	3%	0.8%	86%
AS 543 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 06:24	SEA 08:45	13%	2%	0.8%	81%
AA 707 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SEA 09:25	19%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 767 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	SEA 10:50	20%	4%	0.7%	74%
AS 415 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 13:02	SEA 15:23	23%	4%	0.8%	83%
AS 365 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 09:00	SEA 11:20	23%	3%	0.7%	77%
AA 717 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	SEA 13:03	23%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 462 Delta	DFW 16:15	SEA 18:35	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 757 American Flight history →	DFW 12:17	SEA 14:31	28%	6%	0.7%	75%
AS 1574 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 16:16	SEA 18:37	31%	6%	0.8%	79%
AA 727 American Flight history →	DFW 14:33	SEA 16:47	33%	8%	0.8%	57%
AA 1487 American Flight history →	DFW 22:41	SEA 00:57	34%	8%	1.2%	47%
AA 2009 American Flight history →	DFW 16:53	SEA 19:11	34%	9%	0.8%	57%
AS 322 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 18:03	SEA 20:24	35%	7%	0.8%	56%
AS 550 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 20:45	SEA 23:05	37%	7%	0.8%	66%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	DFW 21:22	SEA 23:39	37%	8%	0.9%	41%
AA 2003 American Flight history →	DFW 20:13	SEA 22:26	38%	8%	1.0%	55%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 08m Denver	DEN 08:01 → SEA 10:00UA 2271	6h 15m	98%	80%
United Details →	DFW 13:44 → DEN 14:55UA 248	1h 03m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013	6h 15m	83%	61%
Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:15 → SEA 16:28DL 2817	5h 58m	83%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON