Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 9 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3801 DFW 07:23 → SGF 08:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3797 DFW 17:36 → SGF 19:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3801 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:23	SGF 08:51	7%	2%	0.8%	87%
AA 3794 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:46	SGF 12:16	8%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 08:37	SGF 10:12	10%	4%	1.4%	87%
AA 3795 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:40	SGF 15:07	10%	3%	0.8%	86%
AA 4092 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:23	SGF 21:54	13%	4%	0.8%	82%
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:33	SGF 18:04	13%	4%	0.8%	71%
AA 3665 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:11	SGF 23:34	13%	3%	0.8%	78%
AA 3671 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:01	SGF 20:31	14%	5%	0.8%	70%
AA 3797 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:36	SGF 19:07	14%	5%	0.8%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON