Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 13–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5111 DFW 08:20 → SHV 09:34 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 6339 DFW 19:51 → SHV 21:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5111 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 08:20	SHV 09:34	13%	6%	0.9%	80%
AA 4130 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:03	SHV 14:06	16%	3%	1.0%	78%
AA 5410 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 10:20	SHV 11:34	16%	9%	0.9%	62%
AA 6337 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 15:33	SHV 16:42	19%	10%	1.0%	69%
AA 4128 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:40	SHV 19:46	19%	5%	2.0%	67%
AA 6284 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 21:35	SHV 22:44	20%	7%	1.4%	61%
AA 6339 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:51	SHV 21:00	23%	10%	1.5%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON