Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 702 DFW 17:52 → SJU 23:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest F9 2220 DFW 23:01 → SJU 05:02 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 702 American Flight history →	DFW 17:52	SJU 23:50	28%	10%	0.9%	61%
AA 514 American Flight history →	DFW 22:47	SJU 04:39	31%	8%	0.9%	49%
F9 2220 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 23:01	SJU 05:02	31%	11%	1.6%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882	7h 12m	98%	84%
American Details →	DFW 06:00 → MIA 10:00AA 3055	1h 17m Miami	MIA 11:17 → SJU 14:12AA 2584	7h 12m	91%	75%
American Details →	DFW 10:32 → MIA 14:30AA 899	1h 10m Miami	MIA 15:40 → SJU 18:24AA 3165	6h 52m	78%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON