Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 1291 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 1291 DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2378 DFW 22:52 → SLC 00:36 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1291 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:45	SLC 09:31	9%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:30	SLC 14:20	15%	3%	0.7%	85%
AA 2607 American Flight history →	DFW 08:36	SLC 10:22	16%	5%	0.8%	83%
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	DFW 14:31	SLC 16:18	19%	4%	0.7%	84%
DL 2812 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:12	SLC 20:00	23%	7%	0.8%	55%
AA 2613 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	SLC 13:10	28%	8%	0.8%	61%
F9 3277 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 18:28	SLC 20:19	30%	13%	0.9%	84%worse than usual
AA 2594 American Flight history →	DFW 14:10	SLC 15:52	33%	10%	0.8%	47%
AA 2993 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	SLC 22:59	34%	10%	0.9%	47%
AA 558 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	SLC 20:34	34%	12%	0.8%	50%
AA 2378 American Flight history →	DFW 22:52	SLC 00:36	35%	10%	0.9%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON