Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2633 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 2633 DFW 08:30 → SMF 10:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 509 DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2633 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	SMF 10:08	16%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 2634 American Flight history →	DFW 12:24	SMF 14:02	21%	7%	0.7%	73%
AA 651 American Flight history →	DFW 16:43	SMF 18:20	26%	10%	0.7%	57%
AA 3314 American Flight history →	DFW 20:59	SMF 22:33	28%	8%	0.8%	59%
AA 509 American Flight history →	DFW 22:30	SMF 23:59	30%	7%	0.9%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON