Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2680 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 2680 DFW 08:25 → SNA 09:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 3325 DFW 13:35 → SNA 14:47 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2680 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	SNA 09:33	13%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2644 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SNA 08:18	13%	3%	0.8%	83%
AA 2672 American Flight history →	DFW 09:40	SNA 10:48	17%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 2684 American Flight history →	DFW 12:23	SNA 13:31	18%	4%	0.8%	80%
AA 348 American Flight history →	DFW 21:16	SNA 22:24	19%	3%	1.0%	74%
AA 2669 American Flight history →	DFW 10:53	SNA 12:05	20%	5%	0.7%	61%
AA 806 American Flight history →	DFW 19:15	SNA 20:22	22%	4%	1.0%	68%
AA 2668 American Flight history →	DFW 16:24	SNA 17:37	22%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 2688 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	SNA 15:36	23%	6%	0.8%	61%
F9 3325 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 13:35	SNA 14:47	29%	8%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON