Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2704 at 13:14, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2704 American Flight history →	DFW 13:14	SRQ 16:46	31%	10%	17.7%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 24m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438	6h 28m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115	7h 47m	100%	68%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:51 → ATL 20:19DL 2143	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 54m	94%	68%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	7h 04m	97%	66%
American Details →	DFW 08:30 → CLT 12:10AA 1690	2h 41m Charlotte	CLT 14:51 → SRQ 16:48AA 5627 · flown by PSA	7h 18m	98%	61%
American Details →	DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 18:49 → SRQ 20:48AA 2094	7h 53m	99%	59%
American Details →	DFW 15:39 → MIA 19:40AA 3083	3h 14m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	7h 20m	96%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05AA 2206	49m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	4h 49m	51%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON