Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1410 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1410 DFW 07:00 → STL 08:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2761 DFW 18:02 → STL 19:53 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1410 American Flight history →	DFW 07:00	STL 08:46	13%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 5655 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 10:41	STL 12:44	19%	6%	1.1%	70%
AA 1010 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	STL 21:48	28%	9%	0.8%	64%
AA 3049 American Flight history →	DFW 22:12	STL 00:04	29%	7%	0.8%	52%
AA 2712 American Flight history →	DFW 14:41	STL 16:28	29%	8%	0.8%	32%
AA 2491 American Flight history →	DFW 16:39	STL 18:30	32%	9%	0.8%	55%
AA 2761 American Flight history →	DFW 18:02	STL 19:53	33%	9%	0.8%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON