Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 08:55, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Santa Rosa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2736 American Flight history →	DFW 10:15	STS 12:03	22%	6%	0.7%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Rosa is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	DFW 17:45 → PDX 19:49AS 646	1h 56m Portland	PDX 21:45 → STS 23:30AS 3115 · flown by SkyWest	7h 45m	96%	83%
American Details →	DFW 06:17 → PHX 06:50AA 1854	3h 27m Phoenix	PHX 10:17 → STS 12:30AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	8h 13m	100%	81%
American Details →	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	2h 16m Phoenix	PHX 13:35 → STS 15:42AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	6h 52m	98%	76%
Alaska Details →	DFW 16:16 → SEA 18:37AS 1574	2h 07m Seattle	SEA 20:44 → STS 22:51AS 3410 · flown by SkyWest	8h 35m	100%	74%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 09:54 → STS 11:58AS 1321	7h 34m	90%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	48m Phoenix	PHX 10:17 → STS 12:30AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	5h 35m	70%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON