Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:45, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2943 American Flight history →	DFW 10:05	STT 16:11	23%	7%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte Amalie is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22UA 2260	3h 30m Houston	IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908	9h 33m	99%	84%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:38AA 575	1h 19m Charlotte	CLT 09:57 → STT 13:48AA 2432	7h 48m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902	8h 03m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:35 → STT 15:20DL 1889	7h 35m	96%	76%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55AA 3189	1h 12m Miami	MIA 10:07 → STT 12:59AA 2744	6h 59m	93%	72%
American Details →	DFW 06:00 → MIA 10:00AA 3055	3h 08m Miami	MIA 13:08 → STT 16:00AA 2738	9h 00m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON