tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 421 at 19:25, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 421 American Flight history → DFW 19:25 SYR 23:40 34% 12% 0.9% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773 2h 52m Denver DEN 09:45 → SYR 15:12UA 1909 8h 27m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 2h 27m Detroit DTW 11:31 → SYR 13:01DL 3533 · flown by SkyWest 6h 41m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → ORD 09:42AA 1106 3h 41m Chicago ORD 13:23 → SYR 16:26AA 3819 · flown by Envoy 8h 26m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991 7h 03m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:05 → PHL 09:22AA 2358 3h 50m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont 8h 29m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 15:30 → ORD 18:16AA 2740 2h 38m Chicago ORD 20:54 → SYR 23:55AA 3817 · flown by Envoy 7h 25m 94% 80%
UnitedDetails → DFW 09:45 → ORD 12:26UA 1114 1h 29m Chicago ORD 13:55 → SYR 16:48UA 2343 6h 03m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690 6h 53m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → DFW 11:34 → FLL 15:30B6 482 1h 00m Fort Lauderdale FLL 16:30 → SYR 19:40B6 1738 7h 06m 70% 47%
AmericanDetails → DFW 12:14 → PHL 16:37AA 2947 53m Philadelphia PHL 17:30 → SYR 18:54AA 5837 · flown by Piedmont 5h 40m 68% 43%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:10 → LGA 20:51DL 869 54m New York LGA 21:45 → SYR 23:12DL 5524 · flown by Endeavor 6h 02m 69% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON