Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: F9 1334 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–41%.

Safest bet that day F9 1334 DFW 05:30 → TPA 09:09 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2256 DFW 20:30 → TPA 23:59 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1334 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 05:30	TPA 09:09	10%	4%	17.3%	91%
AA 2814 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	TPA 10:41	13%	3%	17.3%	81%
AA 3245 American Flight history →	DFW 09:35	TPA 13:07	20%	4%	16.7%	70%
AA 2767 American Flight history →	DFW 12:08	TPA 15:40	26%	7%	17.3%	43%
AA 2813 American Flight history →	DFW 13:32	TPA 17:04	33%	8%	17.3%	46%
AA 3272 American Flight history →	DFW 15:26	TPA 18:58	36%	9%	17.3%	23%
AA 844 American Flight history →	DFW 17:19	TPA 20:54	37%	10%	17.3%	58%
AA 2401 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	TPA 22:08	39%	10%	17.3%	56%
AA 2256 American Flight history →	DFW 20:30	TPA 23:59	41%	10%	15.6%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON