Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3426 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3426 DFW 07:10 → TUL 08:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 2889 DFW 18:30 → TUL 19:46 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3426 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:10	TUL 08:22	9%	2%	0.9%	81%
AA 3829 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:06	TUL 12:18	12%	2%	0.9%	84%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	TUL 10:02	18%	4%	0.9%	85%
AA 4133 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:51	TUL 18:03	18%	4%	0.9%	79%
AA 5420 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 13:57	TUL 15:16	19%	6%	1.4%	66%
AA 531 American Flight history →	DFW 22:38	TUL 23:47	26%	7%	0.9%	62%
AA 1514 American Flight history →	DFW 20:08	TUL 21:15	30%	10%	1.1%	60%
AA 2889 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	TUL 19:46	32%	10%	1.0%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON