Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2870 at 12:31, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2870 American Flight history →	DFW 12:31	TVC 16:13	29%	7%	0.7%	62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 05:00 → ORD 07:38AA 1360	1h 57m Chicago	ORD 09:35 → TVC 11:57AA 4190 · flown by Envoy	5h 57m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08DL 2351	1h 58m Boston	BOS 14:06 → TVC 16:39DL 5821 · flown by Republic	8h 24m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	94%	82%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	2h 17m Washington	DCA 11:20 → TVC 13:27AA 4138 · flown by Envoy	7h 25m	98%	81%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:45 → TVC 14:26UA 1887	7h 41m	100%	81%
American Details →	DFW 08:30 → ORD 11:10AA 1059	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 13:55 → TVC 16:17AA 3772 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	99%	81%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → TVC 15:31AA 5628 · flown by PSA	7h 31m	99%	80%
American Details →	DFW 15:30 → ORD 18:16AA 2740	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → TVC 00:01 +1AA 3910 · flown by Envoy	7h 31m	97%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 17:34 → ORD 20:29AA 1893	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → TVC 00:01 +1AA 3910 · flown by Envoy	5h 27m	73%	59%
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	55m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:54UA 3572 · flown by Republic	5h 07m	72%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON