Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 5593 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 5593 DFW 07:51 → TYS 11:13 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 1081 DFW 20:41 → TYS 23:51 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5593 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 07:51	TYS 11:13	14%	5%	0.9%	86%
AA 2873 American Flight history →	DFW 09:45	TYS 12:53	18%	5%	1.1%	81%
AA 2876 American Flight history →	DFW 13:32	TYS 16:41	24%	8%	1.1%	49%
AA 5453 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 18:34	TYS 21:59	24%	9%	1.2%	71%
AA 644 American Flight history →	DFW 16:20	TYS 19:30	29%	11%	1.0%	40%
AA 1081 American Flight history →	DFW 20:41	TYS 23:51	29%	11%	1.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON