Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3838 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 3838 DFW 09:04 → XNA 10:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 3274 DFW 16:58 → XNA 18:17 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3838 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:04	XNA 10:24	9%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 5442 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 07:12	XNA 08:40	9%	3%	1.3%	82%
AA 3847 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:36	XNA 13:57	12%	2%	0.8%	76%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:06	XNA 15:27	12%	3%	0.8%	79%
AA 3693 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:30	XNA 23:47	14%	3%	0.8%	77%
AA 4101 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:57	XNA 21:20	15%	5%	0.8%	71%
AA 3843 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 18:30	XNA 19:51	16%	5%	0.8%	65%
AA 3275 American Flight history →	DFW 10:04	XNA 11:19	19%	6%	0.8%	76%
AA 3059 American Flight history →	DFW 21:19	XNA 22:37	27%	11%	0.9%	52%
AA 1804 American Flight history →	DFW 15:52	XNA 17:07	27%	11%	0.8%	41%
AA 3274 American Flight history →	DFW 16:58	XNA 18:17	27%	11%	0.8%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON