tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2854 American Flight history → DSM 07:04 CLT 10:30 9% 3% 0.7% 90%
AA 1763 American Flight history → DSM 13:41 CLT 17:11 16% 6% 0.7% 64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DSM 05:10 → MDW 06:30WN 1772 1h 20m Chicago MDW 07:50 → CLT 10:55WN 2749 4h 45m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190 4h 45m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:00 → ORD 07:40UA 1856 2h 46m Chicago ORD 10:26 → CLT 13:50UA 3450 · flown by Republic 6h 50m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → DSM 06:11 → PHL 09:49AA 5392 · flown by PSA 2h 18m Philadelphia PHL 12:07 → CLT 14:00AA 1311 6h 49m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → DSM 05:52 → DEN 07:00UA 4777 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Denver DEN 09:50 → CLT 15:12UA 1633 8h 20m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → DSM 05:00 → ORD 06:36AA 4519 · flown by Republic 2h 24m Chicago ORD 09:00 → CLT 12:12AA 2530 6h 12m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 3h 09m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 6h 55m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 18m Minneapolis MSP 10:30 → CLT 13:57DL 2819 6h 07m 93% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DSM 18:03 → MSP 19:15DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929 4h 41m 73% 63%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor 51m Detroit DTW 14:05 → CLT 15:55DL 1429 4h 30m 66% 57%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:01 → IAH 17:25UA 6117 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 18:12 → CLT 21:59UA 2864 5h 58m 69% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON