tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3710 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 3710 American flown by Envoy Flight history → DSM 06:30 DCA 09:59 12% 3% 0.8% 92%
AA 5292 American flown by PSA Flight history → DSM 14:22 DCA 18:00 22% 9% 1.5% 62%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DSM 05:10 → MDW 06:30WN 1772 1h 45m Chicago MDW 08:15 → DCA 11:10WN 2569 5h 00m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → DSM 05:52 → DEN 07:00UA 4777 · flown by SkyWest 2h 30m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 8h 07m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:00 → ORD 07:40UA 1856 2h 20m Chicago ORD 10:00 → DCA 13:04UA 1381 6h 04m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → DSM 05:00 → ORD 06:36AA 4519 · flown by Republic 1h 24m Chicago ORD 08:00 → DCA 10:59AA 2345 4h 59m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 52m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 4h 46m 92% 82%
AmericanDetails → DSM 05:12 → DFW 07:23AA 2326 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:57 → DCA 13:59AA 1624 7h 47m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 5h 58m 93% 81%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982 58m Houston IAH 09:47 → DCA 13:57UA 2670 6h 37m 94% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:24 → ORD 17:03UA 1989 57m Chicago ORD 18:00 → DCA 21:10UA 1369 4h 46m 75% 58%
AmericanDetails → DSM 16:48 → DFW 18:59AA 2421 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 6h 11m 72% 53%
DeltaDetails → DSM 17:34 → DTW 20:27DL 5305 · flown by Endeavor 57m Detroit DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59DL 2073 4h 25m 61% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON