Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1769 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1769 DSM 06:10 → DEN 07:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 1781 DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1769 Southwest Flight history →	DSM 06:10	DEN 07:00	4%	1%	0.6%	84%
UA 4777 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 05:52	DEN 07:00	6%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 5288 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 11:34	DEN 12:45	10%	5%	0.6%	97%
UA 1521 United Flight history →	DSM 09:14	DEN 10:20	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 5277 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 13:40	DEN 14:51	11%	5%	0.6%	81%
WN 1770 Southwest Flight history →	DSM 13:30	DEN 14:25	18%	4%	0.6%	73%
F9 1677 Frontier Flight history →	DSM 14:19	DEN 15:23	18%	8%	0.7%	81%
UA 1781 United Flight history →	DSM 17:17	DEN 18:23	26%	8%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON