Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2326 at 05:12 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2326 DSM 05:12 → DFW 07:23 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1762 DSM 19:13 → DFW 21:15 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2326 American Flight history →	DSM 05:12	DFW 07:23	8%	6%	1.1%	85%
AA 3495 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DSM 09:41	DFW 11:48	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 2421 American Flight history →	DSM 16:48	DFW 18:59	28%	10%	1.0%	46%
AA 1762 American Flight history →	DSM 19:13	DFW 21:15	34%	11%	1.3%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON