Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1982 at 06:20, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1982 United Flight history →	DSM 06:20	IAH 08:49	6%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 6117 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DSM 15:01	IAH 17:25	20%	8%	1.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DSM 06:00 → ORD 07:40UA 1856	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → IAH 13:23UA 2638	7h 23m	96%	83%
United Details →	DSM 05:52 → DEN 07:00UA 4777 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Denver	DEN 10:07 → IAH 13:40UA 1129	7h 48m	98%	83%
United Details →	DSM 08:00 → ORD 09:40UA 2287	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448	7h 39m	95%	82%
American Details →	DSM 09:02 → ORD 10:44AA 4969 · flown by SkyWest	2h 51m Chicago	ORD 13:35 → IAH 16:31AA 4426 · flown by Republic	7h 29m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 52m	98%	81%
United Details →	DSM 17:17 → DEN 18:23UA 1781	2h 47m Denver	DEN 21:10 → IAH 00:41 +1UA 1253	7h 24m	94%	81%
United Details →	DSM 11:23 → ORD 13:03UA 1410	3h 02m Chicago	ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714	7h 47m	97%	80%
United Details →	DSM 13:40 → DEN 14:51UA 5277 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Denver	DEN 18:05 → IAH 21:36UA 2791	7h 56m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON