tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1771 Southwest Flight history → DSM 12:05 LAS 13:10 13% 3% 0.6% 80%
G4 1708 Allegiant Flight history → DSM 22:01 LAS 23:08 21% 9% 0.8% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DSM 06:10 → DEN 07:00WN 1769 1h 30m Denver DEN 08:30 → LAS 09:25WN 1024 5h 15m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → DSM 05:52 → DEN 07:00UA 4777 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Denver DEN 08:05 → LAS 09:07UA 2316 5h 15m 95% 88%
SouthwestDetails → DSM 05:10 → MDW 06:30WN 1772 1h 00m Chicago MDW 07:30 → LAS 09:20WN 347 6h 10m 96% 86%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982 3h 06m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 53m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:00 → ORD 07:40UA 1856 1h 20m Chicago ORD 09:00 → LAS 11:08UA 723 7h 08m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466 8h 21m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 58m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 36m 95% 82%
UnitedDetails → DSM 08:00 → ORD 09:40UA 2287 1h 20m Chicago ORD 11:00 → LAS 13:05UA 2440 7h 05m 95% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON