tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Denver, leaving 05:52, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4971 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DSM 18:50 LAX 20:42 21% 8% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DSM 05:52 → DEN 07:00UA 4777 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 7h 42m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982 3h 44m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 46m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 3h 18m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 33m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 9h 24m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → DSM 06:10 → DEN 07:00WN 1769 2h 35m Denver DEN 09:35 → LAX 11:05WN 1569 6h 55m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 3h 39m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → LAX 17:35DL 2114 8h 41m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DSM 11:34 → DEN 12:45UA 5288 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Denver DEN 15:43 → LAX 17:15UA 1195 7h 41m 100% 83%
AmericanDetails → DSM 05:45 → PHX 06:45AA 1795 3h 51m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → LAX 12:06AA 2869 8h 21m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor 1h 00m Detroit DTW 14:14 → LAX 15:55DL 908 7h 30m 73% 61%
UnitedDetails → DSM 18:50 → ORD 20:30UA 6050 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Chicago ORD 21:30 → LAX 00:09 +1UA 661 7h 19m 69% 53%
AmericanDetails → DSM 19:13 → DFW 21:15AA 1762 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:31 → LAX 23:45AA 1504 6h 32m 75% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON