tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4795 at 07:11, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4795 American flown by Republic Flight history → DSM 07:11 LGA 11:00 11% 3% 0.7% 82%
DL 4945 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record DSM 07:33 LGA 11:18 25% 14% 4.5% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DSM 05:10 → MDW 06:30WN 1772 1h 35m Chicago MDW 08:05 → LGA 11:20WN 2038 5h 10m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → DSM 05:52 → DEN 07:00UA 4777 · flown by SkyWest 1h 03m Denver DEN 08:03 → LGA 13:57UA 1442 7h 05m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 1h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 01m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → DSM 05:00 → ORD 06:36AA 4519 · flown by Republic 1h 24m Chicago ORD 08:00 → LGA 11:19AA 2079 5h 19m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:00 → ORD 07:40UA 1856 2h 23m Chicago ORD 10:03 → LGA 13:26UA 669 6h 26m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 3h 16m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:03DL 1669 6h 55m 95% 79%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 1h 53m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764 5h 55m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → DSM 14:45 → MSP 15:58DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 4h 00m Minneapolis MSP 19:58 → LGA 23:40DL 2733 7h 55m 97% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DSM 17:34 → DTW 20:27DL 5305 · flown by Endeavor 1h 23m Detroit DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603 5h 06m 74% 57%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor 48m Detroit DTW 14:02 → LGA 15:53DL 2602 4h 28m 65% 52%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:24 → ORD 17:03UA 1989 57m Chicago ORD 18:00 → LGA 21:25UA 1623 5h 01m 75% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON