Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1772 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1772 Southwest Flight history →	DSM 05:10	MDW 06:30	4%	2%	0.7%	93%
WN 1755 Southwest Flight history →	DSM 16:40	MDW 18:00	21%	6%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DSM 06:10 → DEN 07:00WN 1769	3h 00m Denver	DEN 10:00 → MDW 13:25WN 755	7h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 15m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 50m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 26m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 38m	96%	76%
Southwest Details →	DSM 13:30 → DEN 14:25WN 1770	1h 25m Denver	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	5h 45m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	DSM 12:05 → LAS 13:10WN 1771	2h 55m Las Vegas	LAS 16:05 → MDW 21:45WN 2274	9h 40m	100%	69%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 18m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 19m	96%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON