Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4519 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 4519 DSM 05:00 → ORD 06:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 6050 DSM 18:50 → ORD 20:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4519 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 05:00	ORD 06:36	6%	3%	1.1%	90%
UA 1856 United Flight history →	DSM 06:00	ORD 07:40	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
UA 2287 United Flight history →	DSM 08:00	ORD 09:40	10%	3%	0.7%	93%
AA 4969 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 09:02	ORD 10:44	11%	6%	1.0%	90%
UA 1410 United Flight history →	DSM 11:23	ORD 13:03	15%	5%	0.6%	68%
AA 4676 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 13:35	ORD 15:17	15%	5%	0.9%	83%
AA 4102 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DSM 20:50	ORD 22:30	20%	6%	1.7%	68%
UA 1989 United Flight history →	DSM 15:24	ORD 17:03	22%	7%	0.7%	67%
AA 4973 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 18:33	ORD 20:28	26%	12%	1.5%	55%
UA 6050 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DSM 18:50	ORD 20:30	31%	12%	1.3%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON