tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5392 American flown by PSA Flight history → DSM 06:11 PHL 09:49 10% 5% 1.2% 83%
AA 5165 American flown by PSA Flight history → DSM 13:04 PHL 16:44 18% 8% 1.0% 71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → DSM 05:10 → MDW 06:30WN 1772 1h 05m Chicago MDW 07:35 → PHL 10:35WN 4122 4h 25m 97% 92%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679 6h 53m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → DSM 05:52 → DEN 07:00UA 4777 · flown by SkyWest 2h 35m Denver DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575 8h 20m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 43m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:00 → ORD 07:40UA 1856 1h 26m Chicago ORD 09:06 → PHL 12:25UA 2752 5h 25m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594 6h 10m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DSM 05:00 → ORD 06:36AA 4519 · flown by Republic 1h 53m Chicago ORD 08:29 → PHL 11:41AA 471 5h 41m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:10 → PHL 11:46DL 2331 4h 38m 90% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DSM 17:34 → DTW 20:27DL 5305 · flown by Endeavor 1h 08m Detroit DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402 4h 42m 70% 59%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:24 → ORD 17:03UA 1989 56m Chicago ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776 4h 55m 73% 55%
SouthwestDetails → DSM 16:40 → MDW 18:00WN 1755 55m Chicago MDW 18:55 → PHL 21:55WN 4263 4h 15m 73% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON