Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1795 American Flight history →	DSM 05:45	PHX 06:45	7%	4%	0.7%	77%
AA 2516 American Flight history →	DSM 14:26	PHX 15:24	16%	8%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DSM 06:10 → DEN 07:00WN 1769	1h 30m Denver	DEN 08:30 → PHX 09:25WN 431	5h 15m	97%	89%
Southwest Details →	DSM 05:10 → MDW 06:30WN 1772	2h 10m Chicago	MDW 08:40 → PHX 10:20WN 3016	7h 10m	97%	87%
United Details →	DSM 05:52 → DEN 07:00UA 4777 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Denver	DEN 08:00 → PHX 09:00UA 1481	5h 08m	94%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	8h 22m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274	7h 56m	96%	81%
United Details →	DSM 06:00 → ORD 07:40UA 1856	1h 22m Chicago	ORD 09:02 → PHX 11:03UA 2225	7h 03m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 15m	98%	80%
American Details →	DSM 05:12 → DFW 07:23AA 2326	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:50 → PHX 11:19AA 2990	8h 07m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON