tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via O'Hare, leaving 07:05, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 1134 Delta Flight history → DTW 18:35 ANC 21:20 20% 5% 0.7% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic 3h 11m Chicago ORD 09:04 → ANC 12:56UA 840 11h 26m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → DTW 18:10 → MSP 19:07DL 1842 3h 06m Minneapolis MSP 22:13 → ANC 00:59 +1DL 411 10h 49m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → DTW 08:00 → DEN 09:14UA 1846 2h 06m Denver DEN 11:20 → ANC 14:53UA 280 10h 53m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → DTW 10:55 → IAH 12:57UA 6251 · flown by Mesa 1h 23m Houston IAH 14:20 → ANC 18:41UA 2369 11h 46m 93% 79%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 3h 40m Denver DEN 20:25 → ANC 23:59UA 400 12h 27m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746 57m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → ANC 11:34DL 555 8h 33m 91% 78%
DeltaDetails → DTW 09:25 → ATL 11:21DL 2777 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416 13h 23m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → DTW 06:00 → SEA 07:53DL 814 2h 42m Seattle SEA 10:35 → ANC 13:17DL 922 11h 17m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DTW 15:52 → DFW 17:50AA 1793 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:40 → ANC 22:39AA 395 10h 47m 71% 51%
AlaskaDetails → DTW 17:31 → SEA 19:33AS 313 52m Seattle SEA 20:25 → ANC 23:08AS 667 9h 37m 71% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON