Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4581 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4581 DTW 06:30 → BNA 07:05 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest WN 1776 DTW 21:15 → BNA 21:50 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4581 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 06:30	BNA 07:05	4%	1%	0.5%	88%
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	BNA 09:11	7%	2%	0.6%	89%
WN 1775 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 10:45	BNA 11:20	9%	2%	0.5%	82%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	BNA 13:03	12%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2126 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:35	BNA 22:15	17%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:01	BNA 16:40	18%	4%	0.6%	72%
WN 1776 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 21:15	BNA 21:50	22%	6%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON