Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3639 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3639 DTW 07:00 → BUF 08:14 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3637 DTW 17:52 → BUF 19:09 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3639 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 07:00	BUF 08:14	9%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 3636 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 10:10	BUF 11:22	14%	6%	0.6%	80%
DL 3642 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:00	BUF 15:13	16%	7%	0.7%	75%
DL 978 Delta Flight history →	DTW 22:50	BUF 23:58	17%	7%	0.8%	74%
DL 3637 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 17:52	BUF 19:09	19%	9%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON