Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4534 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4534 DTW 05:50 → BWI 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 1526 DTW 17:45 → BWI 19:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4534 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 05:50	BWI 07:20	3%	1%	0.6%	89%
DL 2341 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:10	BWI 08:44	6%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 1546 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	BWI 11:47	9%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 2480 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:05	BWI 16:41	13%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 2715 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:45	BWI 23:18	17%	4%	0.6%	78%
F9 1516 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:50	BWI 14:26	20%	8%	0.8%	79%
WN 1526 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 17:45	BWI 19:15	27%	7%	0.6%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON