Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2481 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2481 DTW 07:05 → CLT 08:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2352 DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2481 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	CLT 08:52	8%	3%	0.6%	87%
AA 387 American Flight history →	DTW 06:00	CLT 07:51	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 1439 American Flight history →	DTW 07:00	CLT 08:54	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 1791 American Flight history →	DTW 10:00	CLT 11:55	10%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:37	CLT 12:24	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1781 American Flight history →	DTW 13:41	CLT 15:35	13%	4%	0.6%	77%
DL 1429 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	CLT 15:55	14%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 1770 American Flight history →	DTW 16:17	CLT 18:17	16%	5%	0.6%	70%
AA 1794 American Flight history →	DTW 19:58	CLT 21:55	20%	4%	0.6%	72%
DL 2352 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 21:57	22%	4%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON