Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5810 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 5810 DTW 10:15 → CMH 11:23 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3782 DTW 16:58 → CMH 18:06 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5810 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 10:15	CMH 11:23	7%	3%	0.5%	94%
DL 5774 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 12:20	CMH 13:27	8%	3%	0.5%	90%
DL 5634 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 22:50	CMH 23:56	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 5838 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 19:54	CMH 21:02	9%	4%	0.6%	82%
DL 3739 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 08:40	CMH 09:51	16%	6%	0.6%	82%
DL 3782 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:58	CMH 18:06	17%	6%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON