Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1778 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1778 DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4450 DTW 16:00 → DEN 17:05 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1778 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 05:25	DEN 06:30	4%	1%	0.5%	93%
DL 1113 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	DEN 09:47	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
UA 1846 United Flight history →	DTW 08:00	DEN 09:14	9%	3%	0.5%	75%
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:42	DEN 13:45	14%	3%	0.5%	85%
UA 302 United Flight history →	DTW 15:32	DEN 16:45	15%	4%	0.5%	83%
F9 2211 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 07:40	DEN 08:54	16%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 1644 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:36	DEN 22:44	18%	3%	0.5%	72%
F9 3565 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 13:19	DEN 14:35	19%	5%	0.6%	85%
DL 2431 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:21	DEN 17:27	22%	4%	0.5%	72%
WN 4450 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 16:00	DEN 17:05	28%	5%	0.5%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON