Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1108 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1108 DTW 05:37 → DFW 07:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 3175 DTW 19:30 → DFW 21:31 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1108 American Flight history →	DTW 05:37	DFW 07:32	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
AA 482 American Flight history →	DTW 07:58	DFW 09:54	11%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	DFW 10:24	13%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 1792 American Flight history →	DTW 11:51	DFW 13:40	14%	4%	0.8%	76%
DL 1041 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:45	DFW 14:32	16%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 1543 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	DFW 17:36	19%	5%	0.6%	73%
DL 1207 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:46	DFW 22:32	20%	6%	0.6%	74%
AA 1793 American Flight history →	DTW 15:52	DFW 17:50	20%	5%	0.8%	68%
F9 3177 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 11:49	DFW 13:46	21%	7%	1.1%	79%
AA 1786 American Flight history →	DTW 19:51	DFW 21:44	27%	6%	0.8%	47%
F9 3175 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 19:30	DFW 21:31	35%	12%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON