Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:17, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:30	HNL 14:07	14%	4%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	14h 03m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312	12h 42m	98%	85%
United Details →	DTW 05:30 → ORD 05:53UA 3483 · flown by Republic	3h 37m Chicago	ORD 09:30 → HNL 13:32UA 219	14h 02m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → SLC 08:53DL 3229	2h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	13h 19m	100%	82%
United Details →	DTW 06:15 → IAH 08:11UA 1229	1h 59m Houston	IAH 10:10 → HNL 13:26UA 253	13h 11m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 08m	99%	77%
United Details →	DTW 08:00 → DEN 09:14UA 1846	2h 46m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	13h 13m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:14 → LAX 15:55DL 908	2h 42m Los Angeles	LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443	13h 08m	98%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON