Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5846 DTW 14:00 → IND 15:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 3879 DTW 12:20 → IND 13:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5846 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 14:00	IND 15:17	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 5826 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 16:00	IND 17:18	11%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 3879 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 12:20	IND 13:37	14%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 4875 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 08:30	IND 09:50	21%	7%	1.4%	79%
DL 5095 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 22:50	IND 00:07	25%	10%	4.8%	75%
DL 5034 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 17:42	IND 19:00	32%	18%	1.9%	68%
DL 4898 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 20:35	IND 21:55	34%	15%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON