Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2333 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:29	JAX 10:49	9%	2%	0.8%	89%
DL 2994 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:02	JAX 17:27	13%	4%	1.0%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DTW 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 4581	3h 00m Nashville	BNA 10:05 → JAX 12:35WN 541	6h 05m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → JAX 09:36DL 2326	4h 19m	96%	88%
Southwest Details →	DTW 05:50 → BWI 07:20WN 4534	55m Baltimore	BWI 08:15 → JAX 10:20WN 969	4h 30m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	3h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 12:57 → JAX 16:54DL 2392	7h 54m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	5h 43m	99%	87%
American Details →	DTW 06:45 → ORD 07:30AA 6465 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 09:10 → JAX 12:51AA 4740 · flown by Republic	6h 06m	96%	86%
American Details →	DTW 06:41 → DCA 08:31AA 5244 · flown by PSA	3h 27m Washington	DCA 11:58 → JAX 14:09AA 4340 · flown by Republic	7h 28m	98%	85%
United Details →	DTW 07:05 → ORD 07:42UA 5553 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Chicago	ORD 10:42 → JAX 14:27UA 2427	7h 22m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 16:18 → JFK 18:29DL 2934	46m New York	JFK 19:15 → JAX 22:17DL 5123 · flown by Endeavor	5h 59m	75%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON