Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 334 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 334 DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest DL 916 DTW 20:43 → LAS 21:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 334 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:59	LAS 10:12	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 421 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	LAS 13:28	17%	4%	0.6%	76%
F9 2801 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 08:30	LAS 09:57	19%	7%	0.7%	71%
DL 544 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:40	LAS 19:54	21%	7%	0.6%	70%
DL 766 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	LAS 17:51	22%	7%	0.6%	73%
WN 4177 Southwest Flight history →	DTW 13:05	LAS 14:25	24%	6%	0.6%	54%
DL 916 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:43	LAS 21:58	25%	6%	0.7%	72%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778	1h 10m Denver	DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559	6h 10m	97%	89%
United Details →	DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302	1h 01m Denver	DEN 17:46 → LAS 18:50UA 2338	6h 18m	85%	62%
Southwest Details →	DTW 20:15 → STL 20:50WN 4159	1h 05m St Louis	STL 21:55 → LAS 23:25WN 3936	6h 10m	80%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON