Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 12–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 523 DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest DL 694 DTW 20:59 → LAX 22:46 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 523 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	LAX 10:20	12%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 634 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:50	LAX 14:35	12%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 883 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	LAX 17:33	14%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 908 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:14	LAX 15:55	15%	3%	0.6%	78%
DL 852 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:20	LAX 20:04	18%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 694 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:59	LAX 22:46	21%	4%	0.6%	67%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	DTW 05:25 → DEN 06:30WN 1778	1h 20m Denver	DEN 07:50 → LAX 09:20WN 1568	6h 55m	98%	85%
Southwest Details →	DTW 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 4581	1h 10m Nashville	BNA 08:15 → LAX 10:30WN 991	7h 00m	98%	85%
United Details →	DTW 08:00 → DEN 09:14UA 1846	48m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	6h 34m	90%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON