Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2826 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2826 DTW 08:40 → MCI 09:44 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1321 DTW 19:49 → MCI 20:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2826 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	MCI 09:44	9%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2741 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	MCI 13:24	13%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2761 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:54	MCI 16:54	17%	4%	0.6%	81%
DL 1321 Delta Flight history →	DTW 19:49	MCI 20:49	20%	5%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON