Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2555 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2555 DTW 07:05 → MCO 09:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2530 DTW 18:47 → MCO 21:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2555 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	MCO 09:40	9%	3%	12.9%	91%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:45	MCO 11:23	13%	3%	15.5%	86%
DL 1747 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:35	MCO 13:08	16%	4%	15.6%	74%
DL 2027 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	MCO 14:59	17%	5%	17.0%	67%
F9 3364 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 12:27	MCO 15:13	20%	9%	17.6%	72%
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:00	MCO 16:46	21%	6%	15.6%	76%
DL 1133 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:48	MCO 19:48	23%	7%	17.3%	64%
DL 1123 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:58	MCO 23:34	27%	6%	16.7%	63%
F9 2530 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 18:47	MCO 21:32	28%	12%	17.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON