Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 3191 at 08:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 3191 DTW 08:25 → MKE 08:39 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3675 DTW 17:41 → MKE 18:00 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 3191 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:25	MKE 08:39	9%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 1343 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:50	MKE 16:02	17%	6%	0.6%	80%
DL 3724 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 20:00	MKE 20:20	19%	9%	0.6%	64%
DL 3675 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 17:41	MKE 18:00	21%	9%	0.6%	63%
DL 5476 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DTW 12:25	MKE 12:42	37%	20%	0.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON