Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2258 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 2258 DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 1303 DTW 20:06 → MSP 21:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2258 Delta Flight history →	DTW 09:00	MSP 09:54	7%	3%	0.6%	87%
DL 1746 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:01	MSP 07:53	8%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2697 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:20	MSP 13:10	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2203 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:20	MSP 17:12	19%	5%	0.6%	76%
DL 1842 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:10	MSP 19:07	20%	5%	0.6%	73%
DL 1303 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:06	MSP 21:00	23%	6%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON